The fiscal crisis that started in Greece, and drove attention to similar problems in Portugal, Spain and Italy, is way more than a fiscal crisis. This is about the euro as a currency and about the EU as an institutional framework for governing a union, even more so now that there appears to be a read more

Over the last 10 days a sequence of shocks have shaken confidence on the recovery. Those shocks have more of an impact on sentiment than on the fundamentals that comprise our medium-term base-case scenario. But the market impact of those shocks has been significant, which is why a reassessment of that scenario is due. The read more

In the last three days the markets seem to be signaling that something has changed. The non US stock markets that had previously recovered the most are now the biggest underperformers. Commodities are showing the same underperformance. The dollar is slowly recovering. It seems that the market is testing the general consensus that the rest of read more

Just came back from the IMF Annual Meetings in Istanbul, where I attended meetings with ministers and central bank presidents of more than 12 countries, as well as officials from the IMF and G7 governments. Here are a few concise conclusions from all those meetings, that will certainly take a bit more time to fully read more

Before heading to Turkey for the IMF annual meetings, let’s do a little reckoning of views and where things are going (from a big picture standpoint). Also, what are the themes that seem to be shaping this next IMF meetings this weekend, in terms of the debates going on and the agendas put together by read more

The table below illustrates a few interesting points about how different investments and strategies fared through the crisis and the ongoing recovery. The table below shows the price performance of the efficient instruments we would use to gain exposure to each of those sectors. It is by no means a complete list, just a few read more

In the last three days there has been a sharp depreciation of the dollar against the euro and the pound, and to a lesser degree against the reai and won. This re-ignition of the debate about whether the dollar will continue to dominate the global financial system. Our opinion is that there is no natural read more

The last three days of market selloffs (-3.4% in the S&P500, -4.4% in Europe, or -4.2% for the BRICs) has generated a debate on whether we are in for a more serious pullback. Some are saying that the rally had not been for real nor based on fundamental improvements. Numbers like “another -10/-20%” are being read more

Maybe this is not the time to try to think through the medium-term outlook of an asset class (but it’s easier to resume writing on this than to comment on the 90% tax on bonuses…). But I think one of the most interesting questions to think about is which countries will fare better than others. read more

The Fed said they are prepared to buy US Treasuries outright, which is a policy action that can be analyzed from many angles, some more complicated than others. The bottom line is that it increases the probability that we end up paying for the current fiscal expansion and balance sheet problems through the inflation tax read more